WADARC meets at – Lions Hall, 21 Roberts Road, Lancing. BN15 8AR.
THE PAST WEEK
Last Wednesday’s meeting was mainly about preparation for Mills On The Air. The IC7300 is working fine but unfortunately the club’s laptop is fu no longer viable. Although it’s only used for logging, Log4OM has withdrawn support for Windows XP, so it just won’t run without falling over. Fortunately there were sufficient committee members present to form a (committee) quorum, so a quick vote unanimously agreed to purchase a new laptop. Roger, G7VBR will make the purchase with advice on what to buy from Chris, M0VUE. It’s hoped to have everything setup on a Windows 10 machine by the time ‘Mills’ starts tomorrow.
Ron, G3SKI is getting about now and would like WADARC members to visit him at home. Please phone Ron first to arrange a meeting.
Andy, M6RFE is also faring better and has been spotted in his workshop.
My leg, arm and back problems are on-going. More after I see a consultant next Tuesday. Thanks to all members who have helped out/are helping out with meetings and tea.
CLUB MEETINGS & EVENTS
- Mills On The Air – Salvington Windmill – Saturday 12th/Sunday 13th May – Contact Pete, G4LKW for details and times.
- Tea and Chat – Lions Hall, Lancing – Wednesday 16th May – 8.00pm-10.00pm
- Practical Evening-Antennas – Lions Hall, Lancing – Wednesday 23rd May – 8.00pm-10.00pm
- 1st Bi-Annual Fox Hunt – Lions Hall open for those who can’t travel – Wednesday 30th May – 7.30pm-10.00pm – Note early start time.
For further information as it occurs, please visit the WADARC website: www.wadarc.org.uk
NETS
Monday – 2 metres 145.425 MHz, FM, 7.30pm (local)
Thursday – 40 metres 7.106 MHz +/-QRM, SSB, 11.00am (local)
Saturday – 70 cms on GB3WO, 7.00pm (local)
Sunday – 80 metres 3.712 MHz +/- QRM, SSB, 7.30am-8.00am (local)
RALLIES
17-20 May 2018 Dayton Hamvention [Thursday-Sunday]
Greene County Fair & Exposition Centre, Xenia, Dayton, Ohio, 45385, USA.
Coordinates: 39.702N – 83.9420W
Open 08:00. Flea market. Trade. RSGB books. SIGs. Daily lectures. Catering &.
Family pastimes on-site. Raffle. US exams.
Further details: international@hamvention.org http://www.hamvention.org
20 May 2018 35th Dunstable Downs RC Car Boot Sale
Stockwood Park, Farley Hill, Luton, LU1 5PP.
Entrances: Visitors-51.869155N 0.428050W Traders-51.865229N 0.417671W
Open 09:00/Traders 07:30. Entry/Car park £3.00 per vehicle.
5m x 5m plots available; one vehicle per plot £7.50 prebooked, £10 on
the day. All unsold items and scrap must be taken off the site.
Details/bookings: bootsale-web@magstripe.co.uk http://www.ddrcbootsale.org
Details of other UK rallies can be found on this excellent website: http://www.g4rga.org.uk/All.html
RAGCHEW
Winter 2017 edition published – http://www.wadarc.org.uk/ragchew/winter-201718
PROPAGATION
HF:
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA
Sunspots reappeared this week, after none on April 28 through May 3. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 3.6 (last week) to 14.6 (May 3-9).
So far in 2018 56% of days were spotless. For all of 2017 the rate was about half or 28%, for the whole year, a total of 104 days. These numbers are according to http://www.spaceweather.com . Seemingly counter-intuitively considering the slight rise in sunspot numbers, yet not unusual, average daily solar flux declined one point from 69.3 to 68.3.
Solar activity continues to decline, and we’ve been expecting (over the past few years) solar minimum to arrive about two years from now in 2020.
But some have suggested that perhaps the decline is currently faster than anticipated. I like to imagine a sooner minima could precede a faster rise in the next cycle! What if the upcoming Cycle 25 echoes Cycle 19? Sorry, no scientific evidence, but I like to dream this could happen.
Cycle 19 was the largest in recorded history, and I would be glad to see another one, just so it isn’t accompanied by a Carrington Event. The Carrington Event happened in September 1859 and produced solar flares so powerful that telegraph offices, connected by long lines acting as antennas, caught fire. But the peak of Cycle 19 happened about 100 years later.
Spaceweather.com reports this week that the American Geophysical Union (agu.org) in a paper published May 10, researchers from the University of Birmingham use Extreme Value Theory to estimate the average time between “Carrington-like flares.”
Tough to predict, but they estimate one every 100 years. Of course, this means we are long overdue, but perhaps this is like the gambler’s fallacy: don’t bet on red just because the last five spins of the wheel landed on black:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
According to http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf2227.pdf on page 11, smoothed solar flux numbers around 63 are predicted toward the end of 2019. But when we observe numbers around the last solar minimum (right now I am looking at the 109 days ending on October 9, 2008 as an example) there were numerous consecutive periods of no sunspots (average daily sunspot number during that time was only 1.046) but average daily solar flux was 66.4, several points higher than values predicted for the end of 2019.
These long term predictions are updated about every four weeks, but I have no idea when predictions for 2020 will appear.
Predicted solar flux is 69 on May 11-12, 68 on May 13-15, 67 on May 16-18, 72 on May 19-25, 70 on May 26, 68 on May 27 through June 8, and 70 on June 9, 72 on June 10-21, 70 on June 22 and 68 on June 23-24.
Predicted planetary A index is 8 on May 11, 5 on May 12-16, 12 on May 17-18, 8 on May 19, 5 on May 20-31, then 18, 25, 20, 16, 12 and 8 on June 1-6, 5 on June 7-12, then 42, 12, and 8 on June 13-15 and 5 on June 16-24.
VHF/UHF:
There have been some reasonable tropo conditions recently, but mainly limited to coastal and sea paths. A UK amateur television record-breaking 5.6GHz contact using low power video senders was made last Wednesday, between the Norfolk and Yorkshire coasts, using a shallow surface duct. This can be a relatively-common feature in the summer, but they can be very shallow; climbing the cliffs may just make you too high.
This coming week, with high pressure nearby, there will continue to be options for more tropo, but keep in mind that nocturnal cooling inversions that give some good overnight tropo soon disperse after sunrise. Looking for the high-microwave-band beacons overnight often shows them appearing after a hot day.
Tropo is not guaranteed this week since the high pressure is rather weak and often replaced by shallow areas of low pressure with an attendant risk of thundery showers, giving some possibility of rain scatter on the microwave bands.
The sporadic E season is well under way. We need to look at the location of jet streams within Europe this week, which can influence the location of sporadic E. A north-westerly jet stream over the Pyrenees could help paths to EA and CT. As usual the best advice to capture sporadic E is to remember to check 10m and 6m when you get home from work. Checking beacons, the Reverse Beacon Network and clusters should be your first tasks before having your evening meal!
The Moon reaches perigee, its closest point to Earth, on Thursday and maximum declination on Friday, so it’s a good week for EME.
Beacons often heard in our area:
VHF:
GB3WSX – IO80QW – 70.007 MHz
GB3BAA – IO91PS – 70.016 MHz
F1ZXK – JN18KF – 144.438 MHz
F5ZSF – IN88GS – 144.409 MHz
GB3VHF – JO01EH – 144.430 MHz
ON0VHF – JO20HP – 144.418 MHz
UHF:
F5XBA – JN18KF – 432.830 MHz
GB3UHF – JO01EH – 432.430 MHz
ON0UHF – JO20ET – 432.567 MHz
DX NEWS
HF:
This week’s bulletin was made possible with information provided by AK5Q, The Daily DX, the OPDX Bulletin, 425 DX News, DXNL, Contest Corral from QST and the ARRL Contest Calendar and WA7BNM web sites. Thanks to all.
RODRIGUEZ ISLAND, 3B9. Operators Jacky, FR4NP, Bruno, FR4PF, Emile, FR4PM, Jean, FR5CB and Patrick, FR5FC will be QRV as 3B9RUN from May 11 to 16. Activity will be on 80 to 10 meters using SSB and FT8. QSL via EA7FTR.
MOZAMBIQUE, C9. Members of the Lions DX Team are QRV as C8T from Bilene-Macia, Gaza until May 15. Activity is on 160 to 6 meters, including 60 meters and 2 meter EME, using CW, SSB and RTTY. QSL via ON1DX.
PHILIPPINES, DU. Press, N6SS is QRV as DU6/N6SS from Sibalom, Antique Province, Panay Island, IOTA OC-129, until May 17. Activity is on 80 to 10 meters using CW and FT8. QSL to home call.
SOUTH COOK ISLANDS, E5. Bruce, WB7OTC is QRV as E51OTC from Rarotonga Island, IOTA OC-013, Aitutaki Island, IOTA OC-083, and Atiu Island, IOTA OC-083, until May 18. Activity is on the HF bands using QRP power. QSL to home call.
CANARY ISLANDS, EA8. Members of the Union de Radioaficionados de Las Palmas are QRV with special call EG8CID until May 30 to commemorate Canary Islands Day that occurs on May 30. QSL via EA8URL.
LIECHTENSTEIN, HB0. A group from the Ynomy DX Club will be QRV as HB0/PG8M/p and HB0/PH0NO/p from various World Flora-Fauna sites and nature reserves on May 12 and 13. Activity will be on 80 to 2 meters, including 60 meters, using CW and SSB with two stations. QSL via operators’ instructions.
REPUBLIC OF KOREA, HL. Special event station HL50IARU is QRV until the end of October 2018 to celebrate the 50th anniversary of IARU Region III.
ITALY, I. Special event station 4U29MAY is QRV until the end of June 2018 to commemorate the International Day of UN Peacekeepers that occurs on May 29. QSL via 9A2AA.
JAPAN, JA. Take, JI3DST will be QRV with special call sign, 8J3XXIII/3 from Tanga Island, IOTA AS-117, on May 12 and 13. Activity will be on 80 to 6 meters using CW, SSB, FM, RTTY, JT65 and FT8. Operations may vary based on local conditions. QSL via the bureau.
SLOVAK REPUBLIC, OM. Members of the radio club Horec are QRV with special event call OM75TESLA until the end of the year to commemorate Nikola Tesla’s death 75 years ago. QSL via OM3KHT.
NETHERLANDS, PA. Special event station PB18MILL will be QRV on May 12 and 13 for the Mills on the Air event. Activity will be on the HF bands. QSL direct to PB7Z.
CURACAO, PJ2. Savvas, SV2AEL is QRV as PJ2/SV2AEL until May 15. Activity is holiday style on the HF bands. QSL direct to home call.
FRANZ JOSEF LAND, R1/F. Eugeny, RI1FJ has been QRV using CW on 30 and 20 meters at various times. QSL via UA2FM.
AUSTRALIA, VK. Special event station VI50IARU3 is QRV until August 31 to celebrate the 50th anniversary of IARU Region III.
LORD HOWE ISLAND, VK9L. Operators Chris, VK3QB, Brenton, VK3YB and Luke, VK3HJ are QRV as VK9LI until May 18. Activity is on 160 to 17 meters using CW, SSB and FT8. QSL via VK2CA.
TURKS AND CAICOS, VP5. Mickey, AK5Q is QRV as VP5/AK5Q from Providenciales, IOTA NA-002, until May 14. Activity is holiday style on 20 meters using FT8. QSL to home call.
KOSOVO, Z6. Emir, 9A6AA and Robert, 9A5RBJ will be QRV as Z68AA and Z68RBJ, respectively, from Peja from May 14 to 21. Activity will be on 80 to 10 meters using CW, SSB and FT8. QSL to home calls.
THIS WEEKEND ON THE RADIO. The CQ-M International DX Contest, Dutch National Windmill and Waterpump station Weekend, NCCC RTTY Sprint, NCCC CW Sprint, VOLTA World Wide RTTY Contest, SKCC Weekend CW
Sprintathon, Arkansas QSO Party, FISTS Spring Unlimited CW Sprint, 50 MHz Spring Sprint and the WAB 7 MHz Phone are all on tap for this weekend.
The 4 States QRP Group Second Sunday Sprint is scheduled for May 14.
The RSGB 80-meter Club Data Championship, Phone Fray and CWops Mini-CWT CW Test are scheduled for May 16.
The ARRL International Grid Chase runs during all of 2018.
Please see May QST, page 83, and the ARRL and WA7BNM Contest Web Sites for details.
VHF/UHF:
13th May – 70MHz CW Contest – 09.00-12.00
19th/20th May – 144MHZ VHF Championship – 14.00-14.00
20th May – 1st 144MHZ Backpackers – 11.00-15.00
27th May – 70Mhz Cumulatives # 3 – 14.00-16.00
FINALÉ
The rather long article at this link: http://www.ei5di.com/jt.html should provide some interesting food for thought and discussion.
73,
Alan. G4GNX
